🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.